{"id":1149,"date":"2026-09-22T21:11:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T00:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/index.php\/2026\/09\/22\/quaest-poll-lula-leads-with-37-to-flavio-bolsonaros-33-in-first-round-runoff-remains-a-technical-tie\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T21:25:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T00:25:38","slug":"quaest-poll-lula-leads-with-37-to-flavio-bolsonaros-33-in-first-round-runoff-remains-a-technical-tie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/index.php\/en\/2026\/09\/22\/quaest-poll-lula-leads-with-37-to-flavio-bolsonaros-33-in-first-round-runoff-remains-a-technical-tie\/","title":{"rendered":"Quaest Poll: Lula Leads with 37% to Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro&#8217;s 33% in First Round; Runoff Remains a Technical Tie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/urna-eletronica-tse.jpg\" alt=\"Poll worker and voter terminals on a Brazilian electronic voting machine\" width=\"1024\" height=\"861\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quaest released a new poll on Monday (21) showing President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) with 37% of first-round voting intentions for Brazil&#8217;s 2026 presidential election, numerically ahead of Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL), who polls at 33% \u2014 a gap within the margin of error. Meanwhile, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 6%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Renan Santos (Miss\u00e3o) have 4% and 3% respectively, and Romeu Zema (Novo) stands at 1%. Additionally, undecided voters make up 8%, and 7% say they would not vote for any of the listed candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Runoff remains a technical tie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a simulated runoff between the top two contenders, the technical tie persists: Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro numerically leads with 42% of voting intentions against Lula&#8217;s 41%. However, compared to the previous survey, Lula rose from 40% to 41%, while Fl\u00e1vio held steady at 42%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quaest also tested other runoff scenarios. For instance, against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula holds a numerical edge of 41% to 39%. Similarly, against Augusto Cury, the president polls at 39% versus the writer&#8217;s 35%. Finally, against Renan Santos, Lula leads 41% to 38% \u2014 all three within the margin of error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Government approval and methodology<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On government approval, 50% of respondents disapprove of Lula&#8217;s administration, while 44% approve and 6% did not answer. Likewise, the government&#8217;s overall performance was rated negative by 42%, positive by 33% and average by 23%. Meanwhile, in the poll&#8217;s unprompted question, where candidate names are not read out to respondents, Lula leads alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In total, the institute interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older nationwide between September 17 and 20. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. Finally, the poll is registered with Brazil&#8217;s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-06004\/2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quaest released a new poll on Monday (21) showing President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) with 37% of first-round voting intentions for Brazil&#8217;s 2026 presidential election, numerically ahead of Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL), who polls at 33% \u2014 a gap within the margin of error. Meanwhile, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 6%, Ronaldo Caiado [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1503],"tags":[1243,1247,1506,1509,1512],"class_list":["post-1149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-2026-en","tag-flavio-bolsonaro-en","tag-lula-en","tag-pesquisa-eleitoral-en","tag-politica-en","tag-quaest-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quaest Poll: Lula 37% vs Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro 33% in First Round<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"New Quaest poll shows Lula at 37% and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro at 33% in Brazil first round. Runoff remains a technical tie. 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