{"id":924,"date":"2026-09-19T20:08:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T23:08:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/?p=924"},"modified":"2026-09-19T20:08:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T23:08:27","slug":"selic-rate-cut-to-13-75-market-forecast-and-copom-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/index.php\/en\/2026\/09\/19\/selic-rate-cut-to-13-75-market-forecast-and-copom-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Selic rate cut to 13.75%: market forecast and Copom decision"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets expected a Selic rate cut to 13.75% a year ahead of the Copom meeting on September 15\u201316, 2026. The forecast called for a reduction of 0.25 percentage points from the 14% rate then in force.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>September 19 update:<\/strong> Copom confirmed the cut to 13.75% on September 16. The decision was unanimous. As a result, the forecast described in the original article proved correct.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expectations for a Selic rate cut<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before the meeting, market expectations strongly favored a quarter-point reduction. On September 10, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.b3.com.br\/pt_br\/noticias\/opcoes-de-copom-da-b3-indicam-95-de-chance-de-corte-de-0-25-p-p-na-selic-em-setembro.htm\">B3 reported<\/a> that Copom options contracts indicated a 95% probability of that outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, a probability derived from financial contracts is not a promise by the Central Bank. The committee makes its decision after assessing inflation, economic activity and the risks ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation and the next steps<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Focus survey cited in that week\u2019s coverage put expected inflation for 2026 at 4.90%. This estimate came from survey participants. It was not an official inflation forecast by Copom.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, the decision statement highlighted external uncertainty and the effects of conflict in the Middle East. Therefore, the cut did not remove price risks or guarantee further reductions at subsequent meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br\/economia\/noticia\/2026-09\/bc-reduz-juros-basicos-para-1375-ao-ano\">Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/a>, September brought the fifth consecutive cut. The Selic provides a benchmark for other interest rates in Brazil. However, a lower benchmark does not change every credit contract immediately or by the same amount.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Readers should therefore distinguish the expectation before the meeting from the decision announced afterward. This article preserves the original forecast\u2019s context and adds the known result.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Updated and corrected on September 19, 2026: the meeting\u2019s outcome has been added. The reference to a fourth consecutive cut has been corrected to a fifth, following coverage of the decision.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets expected a Selic rate cut to 13.75% a year ahead of the Copom meeting on September 15\u201316, 2026. The forecast called for a reduction of 0.25 percentage points from the 14% rate then in force. September 19 update: Copom confirmed the cut to 13.75% on September 16. The decision was unanimous. As a result, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[748],"tags":[871,1013,1009,1186,1016],"class_list":["post-924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank","tag-copom-en","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-selic-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Selic rate cut to 13.75%: forecast and Copom decision<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets expected a Selic rate cut to 13.75% in September 2026. 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