{"id":942,"date":"2026-09-21T15:13:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T18:13:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/index.php\/2026\/09\/21\/2026-elections-latest-polls-for-president-and-sao-paulo-governor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T18:59:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T21:59:36","slug":"2026-elections-latest-polls-for-president-and-sao-paulo-governor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.onthenet.com.br\/index.php\/en\/2026\/09\/21\/2026-elections-latest-polls-for-president-and-sao-paulo-governor\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 election polls: president and S\u00e3o Paulo governor as of Sept 21"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 2026 election polls released this Monday, September 21, bring new numbers for president and for the governor of S\u00e3o Paulo. BTG\/Nexus shows a statistical tie between Lula and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro. Real Time Big Data, meanwhile, shows Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas ahead of Fernando Haddad in S\u00e3o Paulo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This overview brings together these two rounds, with first-round charts and photos of the highest-polling names. Each race has its own sample. The percentages therefore do not form a cross-institute average, nor do they anticipate the outcome at the ballot box.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 election polls: president<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the 15th BTG Pactual\/Nexus round<\/a>, Lula registers 40%, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro has 37% and Augusto Cury appears with 6% \u2014 the three highest percentages in the stimulated scenario. However, this numerical order does not mean all positions are statistically separated: Cury, for example, is close to Ronaldo Caiado, who has 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\"Lula,
Lula (PT) \u2014 Photo: Ricardo Stuckert\/PR (CC BY 2.0)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Fl\u00e1vio
Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL) \u2014 Photo: Ag\u00eancia Senado<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Augusto
Augusto Cury (Avante) \u2014 Photo: OnTheNet archive<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
President \u2014 BTG\/Nexus, Sep 21, 2026<\/figcaption>
Lula (PT)<\/span>40%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL)<\/span>37%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Augusto Cury (Avante)<\/span>6%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD)<\/span>5%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Renan Santos (Miss\u00e3o)<\/span>3%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Romeu Zema (Novo)<\/span>1%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Samara Martins (UP)<\/span>1%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
None \/ blank \/ null<\/span>4%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Don’t know \/ no answer<\/span>2%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
0%<\/span>50%<\/span>100%<\/span><\/div>

First-round stimulated scenario 1; percentages over the total sample. Fieldwork: September 18\u201320, 2026. Margin: \u00b12 percentage points; confidence: 95%. Source: Nexus, 15th round report.<\/p><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Clariana Bar\u00e3o, Edmilson Costa, Hertz Dias, Rui Costa Pimenta and Veterin\u00e1rio Wilson Grassi register 0% after rounding. This does not necessarily mean zero mentions. The published percentages also add up to 99%, an effect of the rounding reported by the pollster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the runoff simulation between the frontrunners, the score is Lula 46% to Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro’s 45% \u2014 the gap remains a statistical tie. The Datafolha poll released on September 17<\/a> also showed a close race: 39% to 36% in the first round and 46% to 44% in the runoff. These are separate surveys, not a single series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e3o Paulo governorship: Tarc\u00edsio and Haddad<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For governor, the Real Time Big Data poll released on September 21<\/a> shows Tarc\u00edsio with 53% and Haddad with 38%. The photos below show the two candidates with the highest percentages in this survey. The chart keeps blank, null and undecided votes visible, to make the comparison base clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\"Tarc\u00edsio
Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas (Republicanos) \u2014 Photo: OnTheNet archive<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Fernando
Fernando Haddad (PT) \u2014 Photo: Ricardo Stuckert<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
S\u00e3o Paulo governorship \u2014 Real Time Big Data, Sep 21, 2026<\/figcaption>
Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas (Republicanos)<\/span>53%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Fernando Haddad (PT)<\/span>38%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Other candidates<\/span>1%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Blank \/ null<\/span>5%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
Don’t know \/ no answer<\/span>3%<\/strong><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>
0%<\/span>50%<\/span>100%<\/span><\/div>

First-round stimulated scenario; total votes. Fieldwork: September 16\u201319, 2026. Margin: \u00b12 percentage points; confidence: 95%. Source: Real Time Big Data report, SP-07495\/2026.<\/p><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The “other candidates” group includes Carlos Machado, Izadora Dias, Policial Edjane, Vera L\u00facia and Vivian Mendes. In a potential runoff, Tarc\u00edsio scores 57% to Haddad’s 39%. While the survey points to a possible first-round win, it does not confirm the election is already decided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Survey factsheet<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

BTG\/Nexus:<\/strong> 2,006 voters aged 16 or older, nationwide; phone interviews between September 18 and 20. Released September 21, margin of \u00b12 percentage points and 95% confidence. Commissioned by: BTG Pactual. TSE registration: BR-00485\/2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real Time Big Data:<\/strong> 2,000 voters in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo; fieldwork between September 16 and 19. Released September 21, margin of \u00b12 percentage points and 95% confidence. Self-funded by the pollster, according to the published survey<\/a>. TSE registration: SP-07495\/2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How to read the 2026 election polls<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a stimulated survey, the interviewer reads out the names before the respondent answers. In a spontaneous one, the voter answers without that list. For this reason, results obtained with different question types should not be compared directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, total votes and valid votes use different bases. The charts in this piece show total votes \u2014 they do not exclude blank, null and undecided responses to recalculate each candidate’s share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, always check the collection period and methodology. Small changes can simply be sampling noise. To follow the campaign, see also the Portuguese edition of this report on OnTheNet<\/a> and the original reports linked above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figures updated on September 21, 2026. Photographs from the OnTheNet archive; they do not depict events that took place on the date of the surveys.<\/em><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BTG\/Nexus shows a statistical tie between Lula and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro for president, while Real Time Big Data shows Tarc\u00edsio de Freitas ahead of Fernando Haddad for S\u00e3o Paulo governor. See the charts, photos and methodology.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[750],"tags":[1217,1234,1237,1218,1240,1243,1247,1250,1253],"class_list":["post-942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2026-elections","tag-2026-elections","tag-augusto-cury-en","tag-btg-nexus-en","tag-election-polls","tag-fernando-haddad-en","tag-flavio-bolsonaro-en","tag-lula-en","tag-real-time-big-data-en","tag-tarcisio-de-freitas-en"],"yoast_head":"\n2026 election polls: president and S\u00e3o Paulo | Sept 21<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2026 election polls: compare the September 21 presidential and S\u00e3o Paulo governor surveys, with charts, candidate photos, margins of error and sources.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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