Vox Brasil poll: Lula at 44.2%, Flávio at 42.7% in statistical tie

The Vox Brasil poll released on Friday, October 9, 2026, shows a statistical tie between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in Brazil’s presidential runoff. Lula has 44.2% of voting intentions, while Flávio has 42.7%.

The numerical gap is 1.5 percentage points. However, the institute reports a margin of error of 2.15 percentage points in either direction. Therefore, the survey does not establish a clear statistical lead.

Vox Brasil poll: presidential runoff results

Important: these percentages cover all responses in the prompted scenario, including undecided voters and blank or null choices. They are not valid-vote percentages or official election results.

How the survey was conducted

• Institute: Vox Brasil.
• Sample: 2,100 voters nationwide.
• Interview dates: October 5–7, 2026.
• Method: face-to-face household interviews.
• Margin of error: plus or minus 2.15 percentage points.
• Confidence level: 95%.
• TSE registration: BR-09623/2026.
• Funding: the institute’s own resources.

What does a statistical tie mean?

A statistical tie does not mean both candidates have exactly the same support. It means the observed gap does not establish a clear statistical advantage within the survey’s reported precision.

Moreover, a poll is a snapshot of the interview period, not a guaranteed prediction of the final result. This survey collected responses from October 5 to 7 and released its findings on October 9.

Why comparisons between polls require care

When following different institutes, check interview dates, methods and the basis used for percentages. Comparing total voting intentions with valid-vote figures can create a misleading impression of a change in the race.

See our Portuguese-language coverage of the PoderData/Aya poll released on October 8, keeping methodological differences in mind.

Sources: CNN Brasil — Vox poll and methodology; Poder360 — survey figures and registration.