Eight national polls released between October 14 and 20, less than a week before the runoff (October 25), show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead of Lula (PT) in seven of them, by 0.6 to 4 percentage points among valid votes. The exception is Vox Brasil, which has Lula at 51% to 49%. Quaest, Datafolha, BTG/Nexus and Vox Brasil describe their results as a technical tie. AtlasIntel (a 2.2-point gap against a 1-point margin) and PoderData/Aya (4 points against a 1.8 margin) show gaps above their reported margins.
Note: none of the polls was conducted entirely after Band’s debate, held on the night of Sunday (18). PoderData/Aya and BTG/Nexus were in the field from October 16 to 18, ending on the day of the debate. AtlasIntel interviewed from the 13th to the 18th, Vox Brasil and DataTrends from the 15th to the 17th. Only Real Time Big Data includes the following day, with fieldwork through October 19. The first rounds likely to come closer to the debate are due Wednesday (21), from Quaest, and Thursday (22), from Datafolha.
The polls side by side
| Pollster | Fieldwork (sample) | Flávio | Lula | Valid votes | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quaest (Oct 14) | Oct 10-13 (2,154) | 46% | 44% | 51% x 49% | 2 pts |
| Datafolha (Oct 15) | Oct 13-15 (2,520) | 47% | 45% | 51% x 49% | 2 pts |
| Vox Brasil (Oct 18) | Oct 15-17 (2,100) | 44.6% | 46.4% | 49% x 51% | 2.15 pts |
| DataTrends | Oct 15-17 (2,000) | — | — | 51.5% x 48.5% | 2.19 pts |
| BTG/Nexus (Oct 19) | Oct 16-18 (2,002) | 46.5% | 45.9% | 50.3% x 49.7% | 2 pts |
| PoderData/Aya (Oct 19) | Oct 16-18 (3,000) | — | — | 52% x 48% | 1.8 pts |
| AtlasIntel (Oct 19) | Oct 13-18 (4,998) | 49.8% | 47.6% | 51.1% x 48.9% | 1 pt |
| Real Time Big Data (Oct 20) | Oct 15-19 (2,000) | 48% | 45% | 52% x 48% | 2 pts |
The valid votes column shows Flávio x Lula. Electoral court (TSE) registrations: Quaest, BR-08729/2026; Datafolha, BR-00466/2026; Vox Brasil, BR-04332/2026; DataTrends, BR-04454/2026; BTG/Nexus, BR-04499/2026; AtlasIntel, BR-02418/2026; Real Time Big Data, BR-02952/2026. Cells with a dash mean the figure was not available in the sources consulted.
A note on headlines about the debate
Some headlines say Flávio “gains 4 points after the debate.” In the PoderData/Aya poll, what grew was the gap between the candidates, which is now 4 points among valid votes. Flávio went from 50% to 52% (up 2 points) and Lula from 50% to 48% (down 2), compared with the poll released on October 16. In addition, fieldwork ran from October 16 to 18, ending on the day of the debate, not after it.
Some outlets also describe Real Time Big Data as the first poll to capture the full impact of the debate. The firm interviewed voters from October 15 to 19, and only the last day falls after the debate.
What each poll shows
- PoderData/Aya (Oct 19): Flávio has 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%. In the October 16 poll the two were tied at 50%, and on October 9 Flávio had 52.8% to 47.2%. Lula’s rejection is 48% and Flávio’s 44%. The poll had 3,000 phone interviews in 695 municipalities.
- Real Time Big Data (Oct 20): Flávio has 48% and Lula 45% in total votes, and 52% to 48% among valid votes. In the October 1 poll it was 46% to 45%. According to the firm, 93% of voters say their vote is decided, and rejection is 35% for Lula and 33% for Flávio.
- BTG/Nexus (Oct 19): Flávio has 46.5% and Lula 45.9%. Compared with the October 13 round (47.9% to 45.1%), the gap fell from 2.8 to 0.6 points. Among valid votes, Flávio went from 52% to 50.3% and Lula from 48% to 49.7%. In the unprompted question, both have 44.5%. According to the firm, 90.9% have already decided and 8.4% could still change their vote.
- AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (Oct 19): Flávio has 49.8% and Lula 47.6%, and 51.1% to 48.9% among valid votes. According to InfoMoney, Flávio dropped numerically and Lula gained compared with the firm’s previous round. Flávio has an advantage among Caiado voters and those of minor candidates, while Lula gets a larger share of Cury’s voters.
- Vox Brasil (Oct 18): the only poll with Lula ahead. He has 46.4% to Flávio’s 44.6% in total votes (a 1.8-point gap) and 51% to 49% among valid votes. Interviews were in person, at voters’ homes. According to the firm, 93.5% of respondents have a definitive voting decision, and 46.9% think Lula will win, against 41.6% who bet on Flávio.
- DataTrends: Flávio has 51.5% and Lula 48.5% among valid votes, a 3-point gap. In the previous round, October 7 to 9, it was 53.1% to 46.9%, according to Poder360.
- Datafolha (Oct 15): Flávio has 47% and Lula 45%, a technical tie, and 51% to 49% among valid votes. Lula’s rejection was 46% and Flávio’s 44%. In the previous round, Flávio had 49% of total votes and 52% to 48% among valid votes, so his lead narrowed, according to Reuters and O Povo.
- Quaest (Oct 14): Flávio has 46% and Lula 44%, also a technical tie. In the previous poll, on October 3, it was 44% to 42%. On rejection, Flávio had 54% and Lula 53%. Among valid votes, 51% to 49%. Blank or null votes and those not planning to vote totaled 9%, and the undecided, 1%.
Who won the debate, according to a qualitative poll
A qualitative Quaest survey, which measures perceptions of the debate rather than voting intention, gave Flávio 82 points and Lula 79 on a scale of zero to 100, according to Diário do Centro do Mundo. This type of survey does not indicate how many votes each candidate gained or lost.
How to read the numbers
A technical tie means the gap between the candidates is within the margin of error, so it does not allow saying who is ahead with confidence. Polls are also not forecasts: they measure voting intention during the period when voters were interviewed. Firms use different methodologies (phone interviews, as in Nexus and PoderData, or in-person, as in Vox Brasil), which helps explain variations from one poll to another. In its joint analysis, NC News notes that the numbers do not point to a single trend of rising or falling support for the candidates.
In the first round on October 4, Flávio got 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to CartaCapital.
Market reaction
On Monday (19), the Ibovespa closed slightly lower and the dollar fell to R$ 5.04, with investors watching the polls and the debate, according to InfoMoney.
Upcoming polls
- Wednesday (21): Quaest, commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo. Release scheduled for 10 a.m., registered as BR-08535/2026, with a 2-point margin.
- Thursday (22): Datafolha.
- Saturday (24): final Quaest and Datafolha polls, with interviews conducted on the 23rd and 24th.
Read also: Band Debate: Lula and Flávio’s Slip-Ups, the Viral Moments and What Fact-Checkers Found.
This article will be updated as pollsters release new surveys. Information from Poder360, Exame, Bloomberg Línea, CartaCapital, NC News, Brasil de Fato, InfoMoney, BHAZ, Metrópoles, Diário de Goiás, Diário do Centro do Mundo and Nexus’s official site.
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