Quaest released a new poll on Monday (21) showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 37% of first-round voting intentions for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, numerically ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who polls at 33% — a gap within the margin of error. Meanwhile, writer Augusto Cury (Avante) has 6%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Renan Santos (Missão) have 4% and 3% respectively, and Romeu Zema (Novo) stands at 1%. Additionally, undecided voters make up 8%, and 7% say they would not vote for any of the listed candidates.
Runoff remains a technical tie
In a simulated runoff between the top two contenders, the technical tie persists: Flávio Bolsonaro numerically leads with 42% of voting intentions against Lula’s 41%. However, compared to the previous survey, Lula rose from 40% to 41%, while Flávio held steady at 42%.
Quaest also tested other runoff scenarios. For instance, against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula holds a numerical edge of 41% to 39%. Similarly, against Augusto Cury, the president polls at 39% versus the writer’s 35%. Finally, against Renan Santos, Lula leads 41% to 38% — all three within the margin of error.
Government approval and methodology
On government approval, 50% of respondents disapprove of Lula’s administration, while 44% approve and 6% did not answer. Likewise, the government’s overall performance was rated negative by 42%, positive by 33% and average by 23%. Meanwhile, in the poll’s unprompted question, where candidate names are not read out to respondents, Lula leads alone.
In total, the institute interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older nationwide between September 17 and 20. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. Finally, the poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-06004/2026.
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