Inmet forecasts above-average heat and uneven rainfall in Brazil this September

Inmet forecasts above-average temperatures across much of Brazil in September 2026. Some areas could be up to 2°C warmer than usual, especially in the North, Northeast and Central-West. However, rainfall is likely to vary considerably between regions.

Inmet outlook for the South and Southeast

The National Institute of Meteorology expects above-average rainfall in the South and Southeast. Rio Grande do Sul stands out in the southern forecast. Meanwhile, almost all of the Southeast should record rainfall above its historical average during the month.

In the Central-West, totals should remain close to the historical average. Nevertheless, some areas could receive more rain than usual. Thus, the forecast does not point to the same rainfall pattern everywhere.

Uneven rainfall in the North and Northeast

Conditions are more concerning in parts of the North and Northeast. Some areas may receive below-average rainfall, while others could see near-normal or above-normal totals.

At the same time, temperatures should remain above average across much of these regions. Where rainfall is scarce, the combination could favor localized drought. Therefore, regional differences matter when interpreting the monthly outlook.

Heat and dry spells require attention

Inmet did not detail specific wildfire risks for the month in the outlook described here. Even so, the combination of heat and partial dry spells calls for closer attention in areas more prone to fires.

The forecast describes expected conditions over September as a whole. In particular, the contrast between wetter southern areas and drier pockets farther north underlines the uneven distribution of rain.