Brazil’s Copom cut Selic rate to 14% in August 2026

Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic rate from 14.25% to 14% a year on August 5, 2026. All seven committee members backed the decision. It was therefore the fourth consecutive reduction of 0.25 percentage points.

This article covers the August decision, which preceded the original report of September 15. It should not be read as a statement of today’s interest rate.

Selic rate and inflation expectations

The August statement cited inflation expectations of 5.0% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027. These figures came from the Focus survey. Thus, they represented market forecasts, rather than Copom’s own projections.

Both forecasts exceeded the central inflation target of 3%. However, only the 5.0% forecast was above the upper tolerance limit of 4.5%. The 4.2% figure was still within that range.

Context of the August decision

The committee highlighted uncertainty abroad and a gradual slowdown in domestic activity. In addition, it noted that inflation expectations remained above target. This context helps explain its cautious approach to the Selic rate.

Sources: the statement from Copom’s 280th meeting and the Central Bank’s interest rate history (in Portuguese).

Correction dated September 18, 2026: we clarified the decision date and the source of the inflation forecasts. We also corrected the comparison between 4.2% and the 4.5% upper limit and removed the reference to September’s meeting as a future event.