Brazil’s Federal Public Debt (DPF) is expected to close 2026 between R$9.3 trillion and R$10.3 trillion. The projection appears in the Annual Financing Plan (PAF), released by the National Treasury on January 28. The range marks a sharp increase from the end of 2025, when the debt totaled more than R$8.63 trillion.
To manage the scenario of still-high interest rates, the Treasury has been promoting a strategic shift in the debt’s composition. Currently, the Selic rate sits near its highest level in two years. As a result, the agency has been reducing the share of fixed-rate bonds. At the same time, it is expanding the share of securities indexed to the Selic rate, which are more attractive to investors in a high-interest environment.
The composition target for the end of 2026 sets new percentages by bond type. Selic-linked bonds should represent between 46% and 50% of the debt, up from 48.3% currently. In addition, inflation-linked bonds should range between 23% and 27%, up from 25.9%. Fixed-rate bonds, meanwhile, should range between 21% and 25%, down from 22% today. Finally, foreign-exchange-linked bonds should range between 3% and 7%, close to the current 3.8%.
The debt’s average maturity is expected to extend from 4 years to a range between 3.8 and 4.2 years. Meanwhile, the share maturing within 12 months should stay between 18% and 22% of the total. As a safety cushion, the Treasury holds reserves of R$1.187 trillion. Therefore, this amount is enough to cover roughly 7.33 months of domestic debt payments. It is a mechanism designed to shield the country from potential liquidity crises or financial market shocks.
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