Focus survey of August 31: Brazil’s inflation and GDP forecasts for 2026

The Focus survey released on August 31, 2026 showed slightly lower market forecasts for Brazilian inflation and economic growth. The Central Bank publishes this weekly survey of financial market participants. Its figures are therefore their estimates, rather than official Central Bank forecasts.

Focus survey inflation and GDP forecasts

The forecast for 2026 IPCA inflation fell from 5.02% to 5.01%. Analysts expected 4.28% for 2027. Meanwhile, the figures reported for 2028 and 2029 were 3.80% and 3.50%, respectively.

Brazil’s inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points on either side. Thus, the range runs from 1.5% to 4.5%. Being within that range is different from reaching the target’s midpoint.

Also, a full-year forecast should not be confused with inflation already measured over the preceding 12 months. These indicators refer to different periods.

For GDP, expected growth in 2026 slipped from 1.95% to 1.92%. The outlook for subsequent years was 1.50% in 2027, 1.98% in 2028 and 2% in 2029.

Exchange rates and interest rates in the August report

The market kept its year-end 2026 exchange rate forecast at R$5.20 per US dollar. For 2027, participants expected R$5.30.

Meanwhile, the projected Selic rate was 13.75% at the end of 2026. The following estimates were 12% for 2027, 10.5% for 2028 and 10% for 2029. However, these forecasts do not commit Copom to any future decision.

All figures here describe the August 31 edition. Therefore, readers should not treat them as September’s latest projections. New information can change expectations from one weekly release to the next.

Source for the main 2026 and 2027 indicators: CNN Brasil’s coverage of the August 31 report.

Correction, September 19, 2026: the text clarifies the difference between the inflation target and its tolerance range. It also makes the date of the forecasts explicit.