Selic rate cut to 13.75%: market forecast and Copom decision

Markets expected a Selic rate cut to 13.75% a year ahead of the Copom meeting on September 15–16, 2026. The forecast called for a reduction of 0.25 percentage points from the 14% rate then in force.

September 19 update: Copom confirmed the cut to 13.75% on September 16. The decision was unanimous. As a result, the forecast described in the original article proved correct.

Expectations for a Selic rate cut

Before the meeting, market expectations strongly favored a quarter-point reduction. On September 10, B3 reported that Copom options contracts indicated a 95% probability of that outcome.

However, a probability derived from financial contracts is not a promise by the Central Bank. The committee makes its decision after assessing inflation, economic activity and the risks ahead.

Inflation and the next steps

The Focus survey cited in that week’s coverage put expected inflation for 2026 at 4.90%. This estimate came from survey participants. It was not an official inflation forecast by Copom.

In addition, the decision statement highlighted external uncertainty and the effects of conflict in the Middle East. Therefore, the cut did not remove price risks or guarantee further reductions at subsequent meetings.

According to Agência Brasil, September brought the fifth consecutive cut. The Selic provides a benchmark for other interest rates in Brazil. However, a lower benchmark does not change every credit contract immediately or by the same amount.

Readers should therefore distinguish the expectation before the meeting from the decision announced afterward. This article preserves the original forecast’s context and adds the known result.

Updated and corrected on September 19, 2026: the meeting’s outcome has been added. The reference to a fourth consecutive cut has been corrected to a fifth, following coverage of the decision.