Brazil Inflation Slows as Focus Survey Projects 1.17% for September–November 2026

Brazil inflation is expected to total 1.17% from September through November 2026, according to the Central Bank’s weekly Focus survey. The forecast points to a gradual easing in consumer price increases after months of stronger pressure.

Brazil inflation forecasts for September and October

The latest estimate puts September’s IPCA consumer price index at 0.50%. That is below the 0.53% forecast a week earlier and the 0.51% expected a month before.

Meanwhile, the October forecast remains at 0.33% for the fourth consecutive week. This stability suggests a firmer consensus among the analysts surveyed by the Central Bank.

November forecast edges higher

For November, analysts expect inflation of 0.34%, up slightly from 0.32% the previous week. However, the figure matches the estimate made a month earlier.

Taken together, these monthly forecasts suggest that price pressures are settling gradually. The outlook points to neither a sudden jump nor a rapid drop in inflation.

Why the Focus survey matters for interest rates

The Central Bank uses the IPCA as the official price measure within Brazil’s inflation-targeting system. It informs decisions on the Selic, the country’s benchmark interest rate.

The Focus survey gathers forecasts from dozens of financial institutions and is updated every Monday. As a result, investors use it to assess expectations for the Monetary Policy Committee’s next decisions.

These figures describe market projections for the coming months. They are forecasts, rather than inflation readings already recorded for September, October and November.